The findings, as announced today, include a variety of assessments and recommendations. It is important that the community of counter terrorism experts review the findings and evaluate it, as they are now a basis for a policy discussion at the level of Government.

HS Future Terrorism Task Force findings

"Salafi Jihadism is the main threat"

By Walid Phares

The Task Force on Future Terrorism formed by the Homeland Security's Advisory Council (HSAC) released its findings today in Washington DC, in the presence of Secretary Chertoff, other US leaders and the media. In his remarks, Task Force chairman Lee Hamilton said the group expect al Qaeda and other Islamic radicals to continue to attempt to attack the US. He said motivations behind these potential attacks are "complex" and include extremist ideologies. He added that while it is impossible to predict with precisions, three elements are to be taken into consideration: Terrorists leadership, political and economic reform in the Muslim world and safe havens (as in Pakistan). Dr Frank Cilluffo, the vice chairman of the Task Force said "home and prison radicalization are very important" in the growth of the threat. He mentioned that a "lexicon" has to be established to engage in the "battle of ideas."



The findings, as announced today, include a variety of assessments and recommendations. It is important that the community of counter terrorism experts review the findings and evaluate it, as they are now a basis for a policy discussion at the level of Government. Among the points raised by HSAC are the following issues related to the War of Ideas, along with my comments :

1) "There is every indication that the number and magnitude of attacks on the U.S., its interests and its allies will likely increase.".
Comment: It would be important for the CT community to begin working on the parameters of this projection: the almost certainty that the magnitude of attacks will increase.

2) The most significant terrorist threat to the homeland and to U.S. interests abroad today is a growing radical, extremist movement underpinned by a jihadist/Salafist ideology.
Comment: As projected by the majority of Terrorism experts, and against the views of the majority of academics in the field of Middle East Studies, the confirmation of the Jihadi-Salafi ideology as the root of "the most significant terrorist threat to the US" is a major statement. Experts and analysts should expand on this finding and establish the various programs to show the links between the ideology and Terror. Also, I advice those members in Congress who are now involved in national security, defense and homeland security to act in light of this important finding and expand legislative work to investigate this threat and respond to it.

3.) "The Internet enhances the full range of terrorist activities (training, target selection, planning, execution and other tradecraft), and is an especially powerful tool for spreading their message and recruiting and enlisting into the jihadists’ ranks."
Comment: Such a finding should be noted, especially by US courts dealing with Terrorism. Terrorism cases have crumbled in the past few years because of the incapacity of the judicial system in absorbing the real threat of Jihadism online.

4. American Muslims noted the report are, less alienated than Muslims living in Western Europe, where the "homegrown" threat is significant and rising.
Comment: This finding should be expanded and analysis should be directed to understand the tactics used by the Jihadists to exploit "alienation" in Europe and compare with the tactics used by radicals in this country to "create" alienation, so that it could be exploited inthe future.

5. "Countering "home-grown" radicalization must be one of the Department's top priorities by using the Department's Radicalization and Engagement Working Group (REWG) to better understand the process - from sympathizer to activist to terrorist.
Comment: In other words, the US Department of Homeland Security must develop a strategy to counter the process of formation of a terrorist from supporter of Jihadism to actual followers, and eventually become an executer of Jihadism terror. I would recommend a new area of research which I have initiated in my book Future Jihad in chapter "Mutant Jihad." In short: Establish a system that would intercept the Jihadist process at its early stages instead of meeting it at its last stages.

6. "The Department should work with subject matter experts to ensure that the lexicon used within public statements is clear, precise and does not play into the hands of the extremists."
Comment: This recommendation is the most delicate among all others. The Europeans have failed dramatically in producing an anti-Jihadi lexicon because they relied on the advice of academics and researchers who advocated the "innocence" of Jihadism and proposed a different linguistic direction for the lexicon. Results: Further radicalization in Europe. The US Homeland Security projection has been successful in projecting that "language" is an issue. The next step is to ensure that the "lexicon" will be in line with the general strategic findings of the report: that is to reject the Jihadi logic with the help of a democratic, secular and constitutional discourse, not by increasing the reference to religious concepts in response to religious Jihadism. We will develop soon a platform in this sense.

Dr Walid Phares is a Senior Fellow at the Foundation for the Defense of Democracies and the director for its Future Terrorism Project. Phares is the author of Foriegn Affairs best seller Future Terrorism: Terrorist Strategies against America (2005) and the paperback Terrorist strategies against the West (2006).

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Find below the full text of the findings:



Homeland Security Advisory Council
Future of Terrorism Task Force

January 11, 2007


In June 2006, the Secretary directed the Homeland Security Advisory Council (HSAC) to create a Future of Terrorism Task Force (FOTTF) to accomplish the following:

- Assess future threats to the United States and U.S. interests abroad over the next five years

- Strategically fine-tune departmental structures and processes to meet those threats

- Recommend how to better engage and prepare the American public for present and future challenges

Findings

•There is every indication that the number and magnitude of attacks on the U.S., its interests and its allies will likely increase

•Globalization has changed the means and opportunities available to those who wish to "know-how" us harm, (increasingly mobile populations, technologies and know-how readily available)

•Terrorism is a tactic for any adversary, whether or not state sponsored, who chooses not to attack us peer-to-peer

•The most significant terrorist threat to the homeland and to U.S. interests abroad today is a growing radical, extremist movement underpinned by a jihadist/Salafist ideology

Findings

• Al-Qaeda, although diminished, is resilient and resurgent and remains a threat to the US

•Al-Qaeda has franchised itself across the globe and inspired groups that act locally and largely independently (increasingly leaderless and marked by self-enlistment)

•Although the war in Afghanistan was successful in destroying Al Qaeda s base of operations, our adversaries continue to feed on weak states and have witnessed the spread of safe havens globally, including northwest Pakistan, Iraq, and the Internet

•It is anticipated state-sponsored terrorism will continue

Findings

• In recent years, Muslims have born a substantial burden of terrorist attacks

•Our adversaries base their actions (targets and modus operandi) in part on our actions

•Factors that will influence the future of terrorism include: leadership of the terrorists, US counterterrorism efforts status of political reform in Muslim nations and the elimination of safe havens

•The Internet enhances the full range of terrorist activities (training, target selection, planning, execution and other tradecraft), and is an especially powerful tool for spreading their message and recruiting and enlisting into the jihadists’ ranks

Findings

• The evolving complexity of the enemy increases the requirement that protection of the homeland be done with seamless coordination between and among federal, state and local authorities and the private sector

•International partners provide valuable input and lessons learned

•Muslims living in the US are more integrated, more prosperous and therefore less alienated than Muslims living in Western Europe, where the "homegrown" threat is significant and rising

•Muslim culture and the Islamic faith are not widely understood within the Western world

•Our adversaries use terror tactics to target both the physical and psychological well-being of our populace

Recommendations

• The Secretary should establish an Office of Net Assessment to provide the Secretary with comprehensive analysis of future threats and US capabilities to meet those threats

•The Secretary should conduct a comprehensive, systematic, and regular examination - a Quadrennial Security Review - of all homeland security threats, assets, plans and strategies with a view toward long-term planning and modernization

•The Secretary should undertake, in conjunction with the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), a comprehensive National Intelligence Estimate to address threats to the homeland

- A permanent Deputy National Intelligence Officer (DNIO) should be assigned to the National Intelligence Council; the DNIO position should rotate between the Department and the FBI.

- State and local input must drive the domestic component of the assessment, and must be continually updated

Recommendations

• Countering "home-grown" radicalization must be one of the Department's top priorities by using the Department's Radicalization and Engagement Working Group (REWG) to better understand the process - from sympathizer to activist to terrorist

•The Department must place a renewed emphasis on recruiting professionals of all types with diverse perspectives, worldviews, skills, languages, and cultural backgrounds and expertise

•The Department should work with subject matter experts to ensure that the lexicon used within public statements is clear, precise and does not play into the hands of the extremists

Recommendations

• Broader avenues of dialogue with the Muslim community should be identified and pursued by the Department to foster mutual respect and understanding, and ultimately trust

•Local communities should take the lead on developing and implementing Muslim outreach programs. DHS should encourage such outreach efforts and facilitate the sharing of best practices

•The Secretary should work directly with state, local, and community leaders to educate them on the threat of radicalization, the necessity of taking preventative action at the local level, and to facilitate the sharing of other nation's and communities' best practices

Recommendations

• The Department should move immediately to implement the recommendations contained in earlier HSAC reports on information sharing, including:

- resolving issues such as classification of information; and

- ensuring that appropriate resources and standards are in place to ensure consistency and adequacy in analytical training and capabilities in fusion centers around the country

•The Department should develop and immediate implement, in concert with the Department of Justice and state and local corrections officials, a program to address prisoner radicalization and post-sentence reintegration

Recommendations

• The Department must use all avenues of international cooperation and instruments of statecraft to boost existing and form new partnerships to foster and maintain a global network that permits among other things, robust intelligence and info permits, information sharing

•The Department should partner with the media and educational institutions to engage the public in prevention and response efforts -developing consistent, accurate, realistic, persuasive and actionable messages as well as evidence-based strategies for communicating the same

•Consider naming the Secretary of Homeland Security to the National Security Council in order to fully integrate national security with homeland security

Task Force Members

• Lee Hamilton, Director, Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars (Task Force Chair)

•Frank Cilluffo, Associate Vice President for Homeland Security, GWU (Task Force Vice-Chair)

•Kathleen Bader, Textron Inc., Board Member

•Elliott Broidy, Chairman and CEO, Broidy Capital Management

•Dr. Roxy Cohen-Silver, Professor of Psychology, UC Irvine

•Dr. Ruth David, President and CEO, ANSER

•James Dunlap, President, Dunlap Consulting (Former OK State Senator)

•Thomas Foley, Partner, Akin, Gump, Strauss, Hauer, Feld LLP

•Steve Gross, President, BiNational Logistics LLC

•Glenda Hood, Chairman Glenda Hood Consulting (Former Secretary of State, State of Florida)

• Don Knabe, LA County Board of Supervisors

•John Magaw, Former under Secretary for Security, US DOT

•Patrick McCrory, Mayor, Charlotte, North Carolina

•Bill Parrish, Associate Professor, Homeland Security and Emergency Planning, VCU

•Mitt Romney, Former Governor, Commonwealth of Massachusetts

•Jack Skolds, President, Exelon Energy Delivery and Exelon Generation

•Dr. Lydia Thomas, President and CEO, Mitretek Systems Inc.

•Houston Williams, Chairman and CEO, Pacific Network Supply Inc.

•Allan Zenowitz, Former Executive Officer, FEMA

•Judge William Webster, Partner, Milbank, Tweed, Hadley & McCloy, LLP (HSAC Chair)

•James Schlesin er Chairman, Board of Trustees, The MITRE Corporation (HSgAd Vice-Chair)


Subject Matter Experts

• Javed Ali, Senior Intelligence Officer, DHS

•Sheriff Lee Baca, Los Angeles County, California

•Randy Beardsworth, Assistant Secretary for Strategic Plans

•Gina Bennett, Deputy National Intelligence Officer, Transnational Threats, Office of the Director of National Intelligence

•Chief William Bratton, Los Angeles Police Department

•Frank Buckley, Co-Anchor, KTLA Prime News, Los Angeles, California

•Sharon Cardash, Associate Director for Research and Education, Homeland Security Policy Institute, The George Washington University

•Sheriff Michael Carona, Orange County, California

•Joel Cohen Intelligence Liaison Officer, California, Department of Homeland Security

•Ambassador Henry Crumpton, Coordinator for Counterterrorism, Department of State

•Derek Dokter, Counselor, Ministry of the Interior and Kingdom Relations, Royal Embassy of the Netherlands

• Steven Emerson, Executive Director, The Investigative Project on Terrorism

•Eric Fagerholm, Acting Assistant Secretary for Strategic Plans, DHS

•Richard Gerding Counselor for Police and Judicial Affairs, Royal Embassy of the Netherlands

•Jim Guirard, TrueSpeak Institute

•Chris Hamilton, Senior Fellow Counterterrorism Studies, The Washington Institute for Near East Policy

•Chief Jack Harris, Phoenix Policy Department

•Brian Michael Jenkins, Senior Advisory to the President, Rand Corporation

•Brigadier General Yosef Kuperwasser, CST International

•Dr. Harvey Kushner, Chairman, Department of Criminal Justice, Long Island University

•Jan Lane, Deputy Director, Homeland Security Policy Institute, The George Washington University

•Tony Lord, First Secretary, Justice and Home Affairs, British Embassy

• David Low, National Intelligence Officer, Transnational Threats, Office of the Director of National Intelligence

•Simon Mustard, Counter Terrorism and Strategic Threats, Foreign and Security Policy Group, British Embassy

•Dr. Walid Phares, Senior Fellow, Foundation for Defense of Democracies

•Dennis Pluchinsky, George Mason University

•Peter Probst, Consultant

•Mark Randol, Director of Counterterrorism Plans, DHS

•Ambassador Dennis Richardson, Australian Embassy

•Dr. Joshua Sinai, Program Manager, The Analysis Corporation

•Robert Spencer, Director - Jihad Watch

•Dan Sutherland, Officer for Civil Rights and Civil Liberties, DHS

•Major General Israel Ziv, CST International

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